Exclusivity forecast


Summary

Exclusivity forecast - 3.14

This page describes how EmediateAd calculates forecast weights for campaigns in Exclusivity groups.

The document applies to both “Exclusivity groups” and regular campaign groups with the setting “Exclusivity within group” enabled.

Assumptions

The EmediateAd forecast system assumes that all content units within the same section are shown on the same webpage.

Calculation

When a campaign belongs to an exclusivity group, the system adjusts the number of available impressions like this:

  • For each campaign in the exclusivity group, find the number of content units it is booked to.
  • Sum up this number per section.
  • This is the “total number of possible setups where campaigns in the exclusivity group is shown” for this section

The number of available impressions is then, per content unit, adjusted by a factor 1 / # possibilities for this section.

Example:

Campaign A is booked to content units 1,2,3,4 and 5

Campaign B is booked to content units 2,3 and 5

Content units 1,2 and 3 belong to section I.

Content units 4 and 5 belong to section II.

On section I there are now five different ways that a campaign from the exclusivity group can be shown:

  • Campaign A on content unit 1
  • Campaign A on content unit 2
  • Campaign B on content unit 2
  • Campaign A on content unit 3
  • Campaign B on content unit 3.

Each of these possibilities is equally possible and only one of them will occur.

Because of this, the number of available impressions for each campaign / content unit combination is now divided by 5. There's only 20% chance that campaign A will be allowed to show on content unit 1, so only 20% of the impressions are available.

On section II, the possibilities are:

  • Campaign A on content unit 4
  • Campaign B on content unit 4
  • Campaign A on content unit 5

The number of available impressions on these campaign / content units combinations are divided by 3 - there's only 33% chance that campaign A will be allowed to show on content unit 5.


If the system setup does not conform to the assumption that “each section corresponds to one web page”, the campaign forecast will allocate too few impressions to the campaigns in the exclusivity group. This will affect delivery not only on these campaigns but on all campaigns with lower priority.


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